New Year is time for balance and perspective. Concentrates auto summit that will take place in Buenos Aires during the next few days, leading analysts seem to have forgotten the most important race next year. This event does not include cars, motorcycles and trucks much less, but has 40 million Argentines as participants. We speak, of course, the true Rally 2011: U.S. dollar, interest rates and prices.
Figure can observe the positions of the competitors at the time of the start: January 2002. By the end of the year prices have gotten ahead by a slight difference against the dollar while the performance of a weight placed on that date and updated until later this year remains a significant backlog. "Our prognosis? Faced with a dollar (as the monetary program) would remain in the range of 4.2 and inflation (conservative) 25%, prices would continue to head, widening of the difference between the currency. But of course, we could be wrong, so let's look a bit like speed engines competitors before the start.
competitive alternatives in the previous stages are remarkable. During the recession of the early 2009, the race took an interesting turnaround, with the dollar record lap times, but without altering the behavior of other participants. The "silent devaluation," according to tourism experts Road would have been possible thanks to the global liquidity and low international interest rates, coupled with the recession, which moderated the price increase (and avoided the blow to the expectations) .
Will the same effect as an acceleration of the dollar or affect the conduct of the fees? Do you keep a dollar race slow?
defined positions who reach the podium: low rates and weak dollar makes the team's victory in consumption and imports. An acceleration of the dollar and rates may lower it (and equipment adjustment amounts are emerging as the frontrunner to succeed him.)
The start is near, and the participants and heat engines.
Welcome to the Rally 2011. _
